Discounted cash flow
Every line of the free cash flow build is visible and every driver is editable per year. The terminal value is computed both ways, and each method shows what the other one implies, so you can see when the exit multiple and the growth assumption disagree.
Load from SEC filings
Base year
Of base revenue. Sets the starting point for year 1's change in NWC.
Discounting
Discounts at t minus 0.5, treating cash as arriving through the year.
Terminal value
Bridge to equity
Value per share
$24.31
Enterprise value
$2,781M
Equity value
$2,431M
| Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drivers | |||||
| Revenue growth | |||||
| EBIT margin | |||||
| D&A | |||||
| Capex | |||||
| Net working capital | |||||
| Free cash flow build | |||||
| Revenue | $1,080M | $1,156M | $1,225M | $1,286M | $1,338M |
| Revenue growth | 8.00% | 7.00% | 6.00% | 5.00% | 4.00% |
| EBIT | $194M | $208M | $233M | $244M | $268M |
| EBIT margin | 18.00% | 18.00% | 19.00% | 19.00% | 20.00% |
| Less: taxes on EBIT | ($41M) | ($44M) | ($49M) | ($51M) | ($56M) |
| NOPAT | $154M | $164M | $184M | $193M | $211M |
| Plus: D&A | $54M | $58M | $61M | $64M | $67M |
| Less: capex | ($65M) | ($69M) | ($67M) | ($71M) | ($67M) |
| Less: change in NWC | ($8M) | ($8M) | ($7M) | ($6M) | ($5M) |
| Unlevered free cash flow | $135M | $145M | $171M | $181M | $206M |
| Discount period | 0.500 | 1.500 | 2.500 | 3.500 | 4.500 |
| Discount factor | 0.9578 | 0.8787 | 0.8062 | 0.7396 | 0.6785 |
| Present value of FCF | $129M | $128M | $138M | $134M | $140M |
| PV of forecast FCF | $668M |
| Terminal value | $3,252M |
| PV of terminal value | $2,113M |
| Terminal value share of EV | 75.99% |
| Enterprise value | $2,781M |
| Less: total debt | ($500M) |
| Plus: cash and equivalents | $150M |
| Less: minority interest | $0M |
| Equity value | $2,431M |
| Diluted shares | 100 |
| Value per share | $24.31 |
| Implied exit multiple | 9.72x |
| Implied perpetuity growth | 2.67% |
| WACC \ Terminal growth | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00% | $25.25 | $27.19 | $29.49 | $32.25 | $35.61 |
| 8.50% | $23.14 | $24.78 | $26.68 | $28.94 | $31.64 |
| 9.00% | $21.32 | $22.71 | $24.31 | $26.18 | $28.40 |
| 9.50% | $19.72 | $20.91 | $22.28 | $23.86 | $25.70 |
| 10.00% | $18.31 | $19.35 | $20.52 | $21.86 | $23.41 |
Blank cells are combinations where terminal growth meets or exceeds the discount rate, which has no finite value.