Discounted cash flow
Every line of the free cash flow build is visible and every driver is editable per year. The terminal value is computed both ways, and each method shows what the other one implies, so you can see when the exit multiple and the growth assumption disagree.
Assumptions
Load from SEC filings
Base year
Of base revenue. Sets the starting point for year 1's change in NWC.
Discounting
Discounts at t minus 0.5, treating cash as arriving through the year.
Terminal value
Drives the terminal value.
Not used with perpetuity growth. Kept so you can compare the two.
Bridge to equity
Debt, cash, minority interest, preferred equity, non-operating assets and the share count are edited directly on the valuation bridge, beside the subtotals they move.
Model
Value per share
$25.24
Enterprise value
$2,874M
Equity value
$2,524M
Versus the market
$25.24
n/a
Enter a price, or load a company from filings and fetch one, to see the premium or discount to this valuation.
Forecast
| Line item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drivers | |||||
| Revenue growth | |||||
| EBIT margin | |||||
| D&A | |||||
| Capex | |||||
| Net working capital | |||||
| Free cash flow build | |||||
| Revenue | $1,080M | $1,156M | $1,225M | $1,286M | $1,338M |
| Revenue growth | 8.00% | 7.00% | 6.00% | 5.00% | 4.00% |
| EBITWorking, Y1: $1,080M x EBIT margin = $194M | $194M | $208M | $233M | $244M | $268M |
| EBIT margin | 18.00% | 18.00% | 19.00% | 19.00% | 20.00% |
| Less: taxes on EBIT | ($41M) | ($44M) | ($49M) | ($51M) | ($56M) |
| NOPATWorking, Y1: $194M x (1 - tax rate) = $154M | $154M | $164M | $184M | $193M | $211M |
| Plus: D&A | $54M | $58M | $61M | $64M | $67M |
| Less: capex | ($65M) | ($69M) | ($67M) | ($71M) | ($67M) |
| Less: change in NWC | ($8M) | ($8M) | ($7M) | ($6M) | ($5M) |
| Unlevered free cash flowWorking, Y1: $154M + $54M - $65M - $8M = $135M | $135M | $145M | $171M | $181M | $206M |
| Discount period | 0.500 | 1.500 | 2.500 | 3.500 | 4.500 |
| Discount factor | 0.9578 | 0.8787 | 0.8062 | 0.7396 | 0.6785 |
| Present value of FCF | $129M | $128M | $138M | $134M | $140M |
Valuation bridge
| PV of forecast FCF | $668M |
|---|---|
| Terminal value | $3,252M |
| PV of terminal value | $2,206M |
| Terminal value share of EV | 76.77% |
| Enterprise value | $2,874M |
| Less: total debt | |
| Plus: cash and equivalents | |
| Less: minority interest | |
| Less: preferred equityFilled only where the filer tagged it. Check the balance sheet. | |
| Plus: non-operating assetsEquity method investments, JVs, surplus land. Never filled automatically. | |
| Equity value | $2,524M |
| Diluted shares | |
| Value per share | $25.24 |
| Implied exit multiple | 9.72x |
Sensitivity
| WACC downTerminal growth across | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00% | $26.11 | $28.13 | $30.52 | $33.38 | $36.88 |
| 8.50% | $23.97 | $25.67 | $27.66 | $30.01 | $32.83 |
| 9.00% | $22.11 | $23.57 | $25.24 base case | $27.20 | $29.51 |
| 9.50% | $20.49 | $21.74 | $23.17 | $24.82 | $26.74 |
| 10.00% | $19.06 | $20.15 | $21.38 | $22.78 | $24.41 |
Blank cells are combinations where terminal growth meets or exceeds the discount rate, which has no finite value. The grid runs the perpetuity method, matching the headline.